Commodity MCX- Metal, Commodity NCDEX Updates - 12'Oct

Commodity NCDEX Updates

India Soya Oil ended the day lower on weak global cues. Benchmark CPO futures December contract on BMD ended the day lower by MYR 25 at MYR 2900 per tonne. The contract traded in the range of MYR 2925-Rs2878 per tonne. E-CBOT Soya Oil December contract currently trades at 46.90, up 0.20 cents per pound.

NCDEX Refined Soya Oil for the November delivery traded in the range of Rs 523-516.50 per 10 kg and ended the day lower by Rs 4.90 or 0.94 percent over the last close. The open interest in the contract added 4.18 percent to 1,40,070 tonnes from 1,46,180 tonnes, indicating short covering. Volume traded dipped to 87,410 tonnes from 2,06,300 tonnes. 

Commodity MCX -Metal Updates

Spot gold prices came under pressure in the Asian trade today, and the yellow metal prices were hovering around $1344/oz till 3.45 pm IST, slightly above its

intra-day low of $1243/oz. Around the same time, the December gold contract on the MCX platform was trading slightly at Rs 19,655, declining around 0.1%.

Spot gold prices lost more than 0.7% in the afternoon trade today, but losses on the MCX were cushioned on the back of Rupee depreciation. Spot Rupee declined more than 0.5% against the dollar today and was trading at 44.69 at 3.45 pm IST.

Copper prices slipped by 1% on the LME and were trading at $8232/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. The red metal prices touched an intra-day low of $8,165/tonne in today’s session. Copper prices declined today after the Chinese officials indicated another rise in reserve requirement ratio of six large banks to curb inflation. On the MCX, red metal prices declined by 0.5% and were trading at Rs 369.50/kg till 4.00 pm IST today. Copper inventories on the LME decreased by 725 tonnes to reach at 371,750 tonnes today.

Crude oil prices declined by 0.8% on the Nymex today and were trading around $81.34/bbl till 4.00 pm IST. Crude oil prices witnessed declines due to strengthening in the DX which pulled down the oil prices today. Moreover,  negative sentiments in the global financial markets also exerted pressure on the

crude oil prices. However, the pension reform strike in the Marseille port in France has become a serious issue for the France government and has entered

its 16th day of objection. Disruption of oil production in refineries, blockage of oil ships and tankers had increased the supply concerns which could support the crude oil prices in the further coming sessions.

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Commodity MCX, NCDEX Updates - 11'Oct

Copper Review 

Consumption of copper products, widely used in construction, power and automotive industries, rose about 20 percent in the first six months of this year in Europe after a 25-30 percent drop in crisis-hit 2009. With expected growth of 18-20 percent this year and 5-7 percent in 2011, Europe’s copper product demand will still lag behind pre-crisis levels. Typically, copper tends to correct after resumption of trade in China after a long holiday. So prices might face a correction in the next week when China market will re-open after national

holiday. Dollar/copper co-relation is subject to benefit the metals. But at the same time, it would trigger new concern of economic slowdown and that might also prompt traders to sell assets across the board. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, fell to the lowest level since January as it headed for a fourth weekly loss. In Chile, the world’s largest producer of copper, workers at Anglo American Plc and Xstrata Plc’s Collahuasi mine rejected a wage offer and will enter talks over new contracts ahead of an Oct. 31 deadline.

Crude oil 

Prices accelerated last week as strong manufacturing data from China and the weak dollar kept oil lifted. The U.S.National Hurricane Center said last week that the area of disturbed weather associated with two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean still had a 40% chance of strengthening into a depression. The International Energy Agency said it sees upward pressure on oil prices in the second half of 2011 due to a projected decline in oil stockpiles. Crude oil maintained its upside move, also supported by a strike at France’s top oil port and disruptions to Houston petrochemical shipping, while a dollar bounce and Wall Street weakness kept gains in check. The encouraging Chinese GDP forecast, a French port strike and a shut down in Houston Ship Channel have further supported the rally. The dollar slipped on Bank of Japan announcement of rate cut, which also supported the prices. We expect the prices to be range bound in the coming week as mixed economic data coming out globally.

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Zinc 

Futures moved higher sharply in the early trading sessions of the last week as the metal is trading strong on LME counter due to non-availability of Chinese players but heavy selling pressure seen in the second half of the week as traders took some profits at higher levels. Global zinc demand in 2011 is likely to grow by 1 million tonnes from an estimated 11 million tonnes for 2010, said a senior official with the International Zinc Association. Demand may further expand to 13 million tonnes in the year 2012, with growth mainly from emerging markets. Global demand for hot-dipped galvanised sheet, the major consumer of the zinc metal, will grow 15 percent a year in coming years, mainly from the auto sector. Strong global zinc prices threaten to keep the market in surplus for longer as producers see no reason to cut output even as stocks rise. The surplus is likely to grow by 250,000 to 300,000 tonnes a quarter but at some point zinc prices will react to the market’s worsening fundamentals. Zinc prices at the end of September were still almost 15 percent below, the levels at the end of 2009. Zinc smelting capacity in China will grow by 400,000 tonnes per year over the next five years, from more than 6 million tonnes per year now. China’s zinc output this year may grow 15 percent to 5 million tones.

Commodity News

Crude oil slipped in the electronic trading today, giving up after a break under $83 per barrel levels in the afternoon trades pulled the commodity lower amid mostly steady to bullish cues from the world equities. The prices moved in a very tight range today after a bounce back post non-farm payrolls on Friday. Asian markets mostly ended higher as the strength in the Chinese stocks and a continue wave of risk appetite as a surprisingly weak US jobs report on Friday strengthened the case for more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 11,000 mark for the first time in five months on Friday and supported the upward bias for the Asian equities. However, the Japanese markets were closed and the movements were mostly thin in the first session of the week.

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Commodity MCX Metal, NCDEX Review Daily Basis

MCX Metal Trend

Gold

Spot gold prices declined sharply by 0.5% and are hovering around Rs 1326.90/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. The yellow metal prices declined for a second Consecutive day after touching a record high of $1264/oz in yesterday’s session. Gold prices witnessed declines mainly on the back of strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) today. The DX appreciated by 0.2% against a basket of currencies today after falling sharply in the previous few sessions. On the MCX platform, gold prices declined around 0.6%, touching an intra-day low of Rs.19, 320 till 4.00 pm IST.

Copper

Copper prices were trading on a flat note on the LME and were trading at $8103/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. The red metal prices declined mainly on the

back of strength in the DX which resisted rise in the copper prices today. Copper prices gained merely 0.1% on the MCX, touching an intra-day high of Rs.363.10 around the same time. Copper inventories on the LME declined by 1450 tonnes to reach at 372,000 tonnes today. Cancelled warrants increased by 3100 tonnes yesterday.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices declined by 1% on the Nymex today and were trading around $80.55/bbl till 4.00pm IST. Strength in the DX acted as a negative factor for the oil prices today, due to which crude oil prices came under pressure. However, strike in the Marseille, largest oil port in France which had disturbed the oil production could support the crude oil prices to gain in the evening sessions. On the MCX platform, crude oil prices declined sharply by 1.2% and were hovering at Rs. 3595/bbl till 4.00pm IST.

NCDEX Review

NCDEX Jeera prices declined further on profit selling amid weak export demand and spillover weakness from the Black pepper futures. Jeera for the November delivery tumbled further by Rs 335 or 2.53 percent to the session low of Rs 12873 per 100 kg. The contract ended the day lower by Rs 258 or 1.95 percent at Rs 12950 per 100 kg. The open interest added 0.98 percent to 12,495 tonnes from 12,372 tonnes, indicating profit taking. Volume traded declined to 1,257 tonnes from 5,523 tonnes.

Fresh arrivals in Haryana and Rajasthan coupled with strong production estimates of the current year have maintained the bearish sentiments in guarseed market in todays trading. As per market sources, fresh arrivals of around 400-800 bags were reported in Sriganganagar mandi with the price range of Rs1780-1800 per quintal. Traders are expecting arrivals will gain momentum in the coming days. The NCDEX October contract plummeted by almost Rs7 per quintal in todays trading and were quoting at Rs1964 per quintal.

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Commodity MCX -Gold, NCDEX Review

Commodity Metal

Gold continues to climb. Indications that the Bank of Japan will join the Fed in additional quantitative easing have set the metal alight. Our bullish view on gold into 2011 remains but after the performance since last week combined with what we see in the physical market dampens our short term optimism. Gold support is at $1 320 and $1 302. Spot gold prices rallied yet again today, maintaining their northwards journey. The yellow metal prices breached the $1350/oz mark and were trading at $1357/oz till 3.45 pm IST. Spot gold prices touched a new record high of $1364/oz in the Asian trade today. The US Dollar Index (DX) continued to deteriorate against a basket of six currencies and was trading at 77.19 in the afternoon trade today. The DX – a gauge against a basket of currencies touched a fresh eight month low of 77.06 today. This factor supported gold prices as the yellow metal has the tendency of trading inversely to the greenback. Moreover, financial markets were also trading on a mixed note today which further boosted gold prices.


MCX Copper futures moved in a tight range today though a moderately weak undertone in world equities ensured that the metal does not extend its latest winning spree. Asian stocks ended mostly lower today as investors took a wait and watch approach ahead of the key economic reports from the world's advanced economies and some profit booking took place in select indices.

Commodity NCDEX Trend

Jeera
In long term (December onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and sowing progress in the major jeera growing areas particularly Rajasthan and Gujarat. Spread between October and November contract is at Rs.115 as compared to Rs.108 the previous day.

Soya Oil
NCDEX October refined soy oil futures closed higher on account of improved demand ahead of festivals. Firm overseas market due to strong demand of edible oil in the world and higher prices of crude oil also added bullish market sentiments on biodiesel concern. Spread between NCDEX and MCX October contract is Rs 0.20 against previous day of Rs -0.15 per 10 Kg. CBOT December soy oil futures ended lower at $ 43.78 cents/pounds on Wednesday, down 0.04 cents/pounds as compared to previous close.

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MCX Gold & NCDEX TREND

MCX Metal

Gold prices have been trading positively since making an important low of Rs. 17505 in the month of August 2010.Since then, prices have witnessed a sharp rally, rising by almost 11.40 % to currently trade between 19400 –19500 levels. On the above weekly charts, Gold prices are closing above its 10-day, 50-day and 100-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).As per the above charts, Channel shows short term bullishness in the market, initial support is likely to find at 19300 and major support is at 18500 level as depicted by the above lower channel line, whereas initial resistance is at20000 and major resistance is at 21150 level . Prices are likely to move up as per the breakout confirmation .

NCDEX

NCDEX Jeera prices declined on short selling amid weak export demand and spillover weakness from the Black pepper futures. The export demand for Indian Jeera is weak currently. Domestic stocks are lower and prices of Syria and Turkey quoted at higher rates.
NCDEX Jeera for the November delivery slumped Rs 183 or 1.36 percent to the session low of Rs 13271 per 100 kg and the counter is currently trading at Rs 13335 level. The open interest in the contract added two percent to 12,657 tonnes from 12,405 tonnes, indicating short selling. Volume traded as of now stood at 4,509 tonnes.


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Commodity MCX, Commodity NCDEX Updates - 05'Oct

NCDEX Review

Guar

Guar futures in the intraday may witness sideways movement. In the short term, Guar prices may remain firm as the pace of fresh arrivals is very slow. However, prices may decline thereafter on expectations of better output in the coming season. In the medium (November onwards) prices will depend on the pace of arrivals of early sown Guar crop and stocks of Guar with the stockists.

Chana

In the short term, Chana prices may trade firm on expectations of better demand ahead of festive seasons. However, November onwards, Chana futures are expected to remain under pressure on the reports of higher sowing acreage under Kharif Pulses. In the long term (December onwards) Chana prices may take cues from the prices of other pulses and sowing progress of Chana in the major growing areas.

Jeera

Jeera prices in the intraday will trade sideways with no clear fundamentals to drive the prices. In the short term (till October), trend will depend on jeera price parity of various origins in international market. In the medium to long term (November onwards) prices are likely to take cues from stocks with major producing nation such as India, Syria and Turkey.

MCX -METAL Review

Gold

Gold prices on the MCX will be further supported as the Indian Rupee has started to depreciate. Currently, the domestic currency is trading at 44.69 (11.30 pm IST). MCX December Gold has support at 19180/19120 whereas resistance is seen at 19290/19330. MCX December Silver shall find support at 32940/32755 whereas resistance is seen at 33275/33425 levels.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices will take cues from the inventory data to be released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) later in the evening today. Markets are anticipating inventories to increase by 600,000 barrels. Moreover, strength in the DX will also cap gains in crude oil prices. However, the ongoing strike in France may cushion crude oil prices. Support for NYMEX November Crude Oil is seen at

$80.60/$79.85 levels & resistance at $82.20/$83.00 levels. Natural Gas MCX October contract has major support at Rs. 163.30 & resistance at Rs 173.00 levels.

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