MCX, NCDEX Commodity Trend Highlights

Ukraine raised coal production approximately 3.6% from a year earlier in Jan to Oct to 61.93 million tonnes as per local reports. Of that, the country turned out 19.89 million tonnes of coking coal in the first ten months, falling 7.8% year on year, while thermal coal production rose 10.1% to 42.033 million tonnes.Coal production in Ukraine rose 7% in 2009 compared with 2008 to 72.22 million tonnes, including 25.49 million tonnes of coking coal, down 4.3%, and 46.73 million tonnes of thermal coal down by 8.4%.

Irans fossil-fuel subsidy was higher than any other country in 2009 at $66 billion, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, creating strain on the countrys economy and inefficiencies in its energy sector. In its World Energy Outlook report, the IEA recognized Irans recent efforts to address the problems created by the subsidies, but noted many challenges remain before changes are implemented. "The chronic under-pricing of domestic energy in Iran represents a large subsidy that burdens the economy and contributes to deep inefficiencies in the energy sector," the agency said.

The market responded to the Global Pepper Conference in Kochi, India positively. Prices have increased in domestic as well as in the international markets.In India, activity has increased and futures prices at the Commodity Exchange moved up by around 1-3%.In Daklak, Vietnam, pepper prices for raw material stood at VND 85,000 per kg during the week, recording a significant increase of VND 10,000 from VND 75,000 per kg in the last week.In Lampung, the price was higher by 3% and 1% increase was recorded in Sarawak. A sharp increase of 10% was also reported in Sri Lanka. 

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MCX, NCDEX Commodity Trend Highlights

 Commodity For Today

1- GOLD INCHES UP ON DLR RALLY PAUSE, PHYSICAL BUYING.
2- US OIL CLIMBS TO 25-MTH HIGH ON CHINA DEMAND, U.S. SUPPLY.
3- LME COPPER SURGES TO RECORD HIGH AFTER CHINA DATA.
4- INDIAN JEERA FALLS ON SLACK DEMAND; PEPPER UP.

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Daily Commodity MCX - Metal Trend

Commodity MCX Metal Review
Gold prices gained today, taking cues from the G20 meeting at Seoul, which started with mixed views over economic issues. As the global policymakers have gathered in South Korea, there are concerns that the ministers are less likely to achieve consensus over trading disputes, especially involving the currency around $1406.65/oz at 4.00 pm IST today, whereas on the MCX, the December futures contract for gold was movements. Spot gold prices were trading hovering around `20425/10 gm around the same time. The Indian equity markets tumbled towards the end of the trading session, as investors remain clueless over the outcome of the crucial G20 meet. The European equities were trading in the green, but witnessed lackluster trading.

Copper prices rallied, gaining almost 2% on the LME till 4.00 pm IST today. The red metal prices hit its multi‐month high of $8945/tonne, taking cues from the
latest Chinese data which indicates that China’s industrial production rose by 13.1% in October. Moreover, refined copper production in China declined by 1.2% m‐o‐m and 0.2 percent from a year earlier to 400,000 tonnes in October. On the MCX, copper prices surged more than more than 2.2% and were hovering at `398.10/kg at 4.00 pm IST today.

Crude oil prices gained around 0.5% both on the Nymex and on the MCX till 4.00 pm IST today. Nymex crude oil prices touched its 25‐month high of $88.35/bbl mainly taking cues from economic data which indicated an increase in industrial production in China. This coupled with declining US crude oil inventories supported the oil prices today. Crude oil inventories declined unexpectedly by 3.3 million barrels last week, the US Energy Department reported.On the MCX, oil prices touched an intra‐day high of `3923/bbl and were hovering at `3919/bbl till 4.00 pm IST today.
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NCDEX -Commodity Trend

Guar

Despite increased arrivals compared to last week, Guar futures may trade sideways with positive bias in the coming days due to poor quality of fresh guar crop amidst improved demand for Guar and it’s by products. Also, the output which was expected to be much higher may decline by 12-15% due to off seasonal rainfall which may damage the crop. We expect arrivals to strength after the first week of November (i.e. after Diwali). Also, the quality crop would arrive by than. Thus, prices are expected decline after mid November as higher supplies may dampen the prices. Guar prices may trade in the range of Rs. 1900- 2300 per qtl in the Medium term.

Chana

Chana prices may remain sideways in the intraday. In the short term, Chana prices may gain by Rs. 70-80 per qtl on the reports of depleting stocks in the domestic markets and expectation of good demand from millers. However, November onwards, Chana futures are expected to remain under pressure on the reports of higher sowing acreage under Kharif Pulses and expectations rise in acreage under Rabi Pulses due to increase in MSP.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade firm due demand from the local and overseas buyers. Prices in short term (till October), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and growth of sown crop. In the long to medium term (November onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.

Soyabean

For Intraday, soybean prices are expected to trade range bound with weak sentiments on fresh arrivals. In the medium term, soybean prices are expected to move southwards on account of increased arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, which is a major producing state of soybean and it contributes more than 50% of its total production. Existing better carry over stock this year as compared to last year are in favour of bears in the long term.

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Daily Commodity MCX - Metal Trend

MCX Trend

Gold Review
 - India's gold imports rose to 43 tonnes in October from 36.2 tonnes a year ago.
 - Spot Gold prices closed at $1351.70/oz on Monday.
 - Spread between MCX Dec Gold and Mini Gold contract is (-5) against the  previous day of (-6).

Spot gold prices started the week on a weaker note, declining around 0.5% to close at $1351/oz, slightly above its intra-day low of $1348/oz. The yellow metal prices declined on Monday, taking cues from the movement in the US Dollar Index (DX) in the evening session. The inverse co-relation between the DX and the yellow metal has been very strong in the last couple of weeks as gold prices are mainly taking cues from the movement in the DX. The DX gained slightly on Monday, closing at 77.24 against a basket of six currencies.

On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have support at $1345/$1336 whereas resistance is seen at $1360/$1372. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $24.33/$24.10 whereas resistance is seen at $24.92/$25.30 levels. MCX December Gold has support at 19635/19554 whereas resistance is seen at 19780/19840. MCX December Silver shall find support at 36495/36150 whereas resistance is seen at 37355/37890 levels.

Copper Trend
Copper prices gained around 1.2% on the LME, touching an intra- day high of $8377/tonne on Monday. On the MCX platform, the red metal prices gained more than 1%, to close at `373.05/kg yesterday. LME copper inventories declined by 925 tonnes to reach 367,575 tonnes yesterday. Threat of a worker strike at Chile's giant Collahuasi mine persist as the company continues to hold talks with the mine workers.


Copper prices will trade with a negative bias today with immediate support for MCX November contract seen at `369.10 further below; crucial support is seen at `365.30 levels. Whereas resistance is seen at `374.90 levels & further upwards at `377.60 levels.


Zinc Trend
Zinc prices will trade with a negative bias today with immediate support seen at `107.90 level for MCX November contract whereas crucial support is seen at `106.60 level. Short-term resistance is seen at `110.10 whereas major resistance is seen at `111.65 leve.

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MCX Trend, NCDEX Trend, Commodity Review

MCX - Commodity Metal Trend
Spot Gold prices gained around 0.3% and were hovering around $1363.70/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. Despite positive sentiments in the equity markets, the yellow metal prices experienced gains mainly on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) today. The DX depreciated against a basket of six
currencies and was trading at 76.97 till 4.00 pm IST. The European equities were trading in the green in the afternoon trade. The domestic equities comprising the Sensex and Nifty traded on a positive note today. On the MCX platform, gold prices increased slightly by 0.2% and were trading around 119,838 till 3.45 IST today.

Copper prices rallied, gaining more than 1.5% on LME, and touched an intra‐day high of $8341/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. The red metal prices were trading at $8320/tonne around the same time. Copper prices witnessed sharp gains mainly due to positive manufacturing data from China, the largestconsumer of the metal. The Manufacturing PMI of China rose to 54.7 in October, more than the forecast of 53.5. In the earlier month of September, the index had reported figures of 53.8. Moreover, weakness in the DX also helped the red metal prices to gain today. Copper inventories dropped by 925 tonnes
to reach 367,575 tonnes on the LME warehouse today. On the MCX, copper prices gained sharply around 1% and were hovering at `372.65/kg today.

Crude oil prices gained by almost 1% on both on the Nymex as well as on the MCX till 4.00 pm IST today. Oil prices touched an intra‐day high of $82.17/bbl,
on the Nymex today. Crude oil prices experienced gains mainly due to positive manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest oil consumer. Moreover,
weakness in the DX has also acted as a supportive factor for the oil prices to gain today. On the MCX, crude oil prices were trading at `3663/bbl till 4.00pm
IST today.

NCDEX - Commodity Trend
Sugar price set to plummet further this Diwali
Diwali could be a little sweeter this season and lighter on the wallet as well, as the price of sugar is set to plummet further from the already low levels. The factory gate price of sugar in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest producer, is expected to nose-dive to Rs 2,725 a qtl, or 100 kilos, in November, a good Rs 375 less
than the price during the same period last year. Sugar prices have been going down since September in consonance with the higher sugar output estimates in 2010-11.

Guar Review
Despite increased arrivals compared to last week, Guar futures may trade sideways with positive bias in the coming days due to poor quality of fresh guar crop amidst improved demand for Guar and it’s by products. Also, the output which was expected to be much higher may decline by 12-15% due to off seasonal rainfall which may damage the crop. We expect arrivals to strength after the first week of November (i.e. after Diwali). Also, the quality crop would arrive by than. Thus, prices are expected decline after mid November as higher supplies may dampen the prices. Guar prices may trade in the range of Rs. 1900- 2300 per qtl in the Medium term.

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