MCX Bullion Trend, MCX Commodity Review

Gold Price

Spot Gold prices traded lower by 0.5 percent today, mainly due to strength in the US dollar. But sharp declines were cushioned due to troubled sentiments in the global equity markets coupled with ongoing geo-political tension. Gold touched an intra-day low of $1420.90/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. MCX Gold April contract traded on a flat note today, as depreciation in the Rupee resisted further decline and was hovering around ` 21024/gms.

MCX Bullion Trend

Base metal prices traded lower on the LME today, mainly on the back of strength in the US dollar coupled with ongoing tension in Libya. Additionally, poor sentiments in the global financial markets also pulled metal prices in the downward direction. Depreciation in the domestic currency led minimal losses on the MCX today. The Spot Rupee depreciated 0.6 percent and was trading at 45 at 4.00 pm IST.

Outlook

Base metal prices are expected to trade lower today on the back of increasing turmoil in Libya. Additionally, poor sentiments in the global financial markets and a stronger dollar will also exert pressure. We expect crude oil prices to trade higher as ongoing geo-political tensions in Libya will increase supply fears and support prices today. We expect gold to trade higher in the evening session today, mainly on account of ongoing geo-political concerns and poor sentiments in the global

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MCX Bullion Trend

Gold Trend

Spot Gold prices traded in the positive territory, amid rising geo-political issues which continued to support demand for gold as a safe haven. But sharp gains in the yellow metal were capped on account of dollar strength. The US Dollar Index (DX) strengthened around 0.3 percent till 4.00 pm IST as concerns in the Middle East increased demand for the currency. Spot Silver prices on the other hand increased almost 1 percent and traded around $36.33/oz till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, silver prices gained almost 3 percent as Rupee depreciation supported gains.

Crude Oil Trend

Crude oil prices fell from its 2 1⁄2 year high that it touched on Monday after statement by the OPEC that it could increase output if supply concerns persist. The oil cartel also added that the supply situation was not at all tense and that prices were mainly rising due to fears. World supply continues to be comfortable despite loss in supply of crude from Libya.

MCX Bullion Review

Bullion prices are expected to trade higher on the back of uncertainty over ongoing geo-political concerns in Libya. But sharp gains could be capped on account of dollar strength.

Crude oil prices are expected to come under pressure as despite geo-political concerns in Libya, supply side concerns have eased on account of statement by the OPEC. Dollar strength will additionally put downside pressure on oil prices.

Base metals are expected to trade with a negative bias, taking cues from unrest in Libya, concerns over economic growth and dollar strength.

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MCX Commodity , Base Metal Trend

Gold Review

Spot Gold prices traded lower by 0.3 percent today, tracking the positive sentiments in the global equity markets which made investor to move towards riskier assets. Additionally, falling crude oil prices have also eased inflation fears which pressurized prices. Gold touched an intra-day low of $1422.35/oz and is hovering around at $1431.10/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. On the MCX, the yellow metal prices declined 0.4 percent and were trading at ` 21085/gms around the same time.

Positive sentiments in the global equity markets coupled with weakness in the US dollar helped base metal prices to trade higher on the LME today. Lead continued to be the top performer for the second consecutive day, as the metal prices gained almost 1 percent on the LME. Prices touched an intra-day high of $2591/tonne and were hovering around `2587/kg till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, lead prices gained more than 1 percent, mainly of the back of depreciation in the domestic currency.

Crude Oil Review

Nymex Crude oil prices came under pressure, dropping around 0.3 percent today, after the Arab League stated that a peace plan for Libya from Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez was under consideration. This factor led oil prices to trade lower at $101.94/bbl till 4.00 pm IST today. But depreciation in the Indian Rupee led MCX Crude oil contract.

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MCX Commodity bullion Trend

Bullion Metal Trend

Precious metals got support from the weak economic data dissipated from U.S. showing a weaker growth but soon lost their shine a 3 year high Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Some profit booking was also seen in the Precious Metal complex. Gold Apr futures on COMEX fell by 0.46% to $1,409.3/troy ounce from $1,415.80/troy ounce while Silver Mar futures also declined by 0.81% to $32.9/troy ounce from $33.17/troy ounce. Gold/Silver ratio rose to 42.7 on Friday from 42.63 the prior day.

Today in the afternoon session we have the inflation data from Euro zone and is expected to remain flat to 2.4 percent on year on year basis. If the inflation is more than expected then the prospects of a rate hike would strengthen and would support the Euro. Today in the later session of the day we have U.S. spending data which is expected to increase by 0.4 percent. Any deviation to upside would support the prices of the precious metals complex. Today Gold prices will face resistance at $1,415/troy ounce and $1,420/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.20,939/10gm and Rs.20,977/10gm level in MCX April contract while on the lower side Support can be seen at $1,402/troy ounce and $1,394.6/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.20,939/10gm and Rs.20, 917/10gm level.

Silver Trend

Silver prices likely to face resistance at $32.5/troy ounce and $33.8/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs. 49,767/kg and Rs.50,313/kg level in MCX March contract. While on lower side prices can take support at $32.5/troy ounce and $31.6/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.49,767/kg and Rs.49,433/kg.

Crude Oil Trend

Crude oil Apr futures on NYMEX rose by 0.62% to $97.88/barrel from $97.28/barrel amid unrest spreading to Oman, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Even though on Friday NYMEX boosted the margin requirement on oil futures for the first time since March 2009 as crude traded above $100 a barrel to $6,075 per contract from $5,063 failed to pressurize the crude oil prices. The latest change on ICE also showed a boost in the Brent margin to $5,200 from $4,850 per contract along with the news in the market that Saudi Arabia has boosted the oil supplies by 9 million barrels per day were kept aside. What weighed on the bearish news were the unrest which continued in Libya and Bahrain along with the unrest which started yesterday in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer.

Zinc Review

Zinc prices have resistance at Rs.114.4/kg and Rs.113.7/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to target Rs.109.7/kg and Rs.108/kg level.

Nickel Review

Nickel prices have resistance at Rs.1,293/kg and Rs.1,303.8/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to take support at Rs.1,262/kg and Rs.1,241.8/kg level.

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Commodity MCX, NCDEX Review

MCX Commodity Trend

Base metals came under pressure mainly taking cues from ongoing concerns in Libya coupled with strength in the US dollar. Copper was the only metal to gain on the LME in today’s trading session. Decline of 1.8 percent in weekly Shanghai copper inventories acted as a supportive factor for prices to gain. The red metal traded up 0.5 percent on the LME and were hovering around $9554.75/tonne at 4.30 pm IST. But Rupee appreciation led MCX copper to trade on a flat note today.

We expect base metals to trade lower mainly due to strength in the US dollar today. Crude oil prices are expected to trade higher mainly taking cues from ongoing geo-political worries. However, sharp gains in the oil prices will be capped due to strength in the US dollar. We expect gold to trade higher today, mainly taking cues from ongoing turmoil in Libya which will increase safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, rising crude oil prices will also help the yellow metal to rise as an inflation-hedge.

NCDEX Commodity Trend

Guar Review

Guar futures in the intraday are expected to recover tracking the firmness in the crude oil prices and revival in the export demand. In the short term (2 - 3 weeks) we expect Guar prices to trade sideways to down due to decline in the overseas orders at higher rates and may trade in the range of Rs.2800 and Rs. 3050 per qtl.

In the medium term (2 months), prices would be dependent on the overseas demand scenario.

Sugar review

Sugar prices in the intraday are expected to recover owing to expectation that the government might release lower quota in the month of March and positive statement by the farm minister with respect to Sugar exports. Overall sentiments in the medium term would depend on the permissible Sugar exports by India. Prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 – Rs. 2900 per qtl levels.

Turmeric Review

Turmeric prices in the intraday will trade sideways to up due to recovery in demand from overseas and domestic buyers. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term turmeric prices may trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals owing to better production.

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MCX Commodity Updates

Spot Gold continued to trade higher today, as worries in the Middle East and North Africa increased safe-haven demand for gold. Geo-political worries in Libya continued as there are no signs of leader Muammar Gaddafi stepping down after 41 years in power. This led investors to flock towards gold as a safe-haven investment. In addition to this weakness in the US dollar also helped the yellow metal prices to rise today.

Base metals came under pressure mainly taking cues from poor sentiments in the global equity markets today. As the crisis in Libya worsened, investors moved away from riskier assets. Nickel was the worst performer of the day, as the metal prices have slipped around 2.6 percent on the LME and were trading at $27,750/tonne at 4.00 pm IST today.

We expect base metals to trade lower mainly due to weak sentiments in the global markets today. While, crude oil prices are expected to trade with a positive bias mainly taking cues from ongoing geo-political worries and weakness in the US dollar today. But sharp gains in prices will be capped due to poor sentiments in the global markets and expected rise in US oil inventories. Geo-political worries will help the bullion pack to trade higher today. Additionally, weakness in the US dollar will also act as a supportive factor for gold prices to rise.

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