MCX Bullion Trend, MCX Commodity Review

MCX Bullion Trend

Base Metals continued to face the heat yesterday due to dampened demand from Japan as factories have shut down production due to power cuts. Copper Apr futures on COMEX pared their prior trading day’s gains and fell by 0.51 percent to $4.1735 per pound yesterday from $4.1950 per pound the prior day. Although Euro zone Industrial Production Index rose in line with the analyst’s expectation by 0.3 percent in Jan, 2011 to 100.4 following a 0.3 percent rise to 100.3 in Dec, 2010; but the rise failed to support the Base Metals Complex.

Gold Review

Gold Apr futures on COMEX continued to end in green yesterday and rose by 0.22 percent to close at $1,424.9 per troy ounce from $1,421.8 per troy ounce the prior day. Silver Mar futures on COMEX however pared its prior day’s gain and ended down by 0.3 percent to close at $35.825 per troy ounce from $35.933 per troy ounce. Holdings at SPDR Gold ETF fell by 1.82 tonnes to 1,213.65 tonnes yesterday while that of iShares Silver trust remained unchanged. Gold/Silver ratio edged slightly up to yesterday to close at 39.7 from 39.46 the prior day indicating that the white metal still holds some investment demand.

Silver Trend

Silver prices likely to face resistance at $36.4/troy ounce and $36.9/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs. 54,336/kg and Rs.54,698/kg level in MCX March contract. While on lower side prices can take support at $35.4/troy ounce and $35.0/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.53,621/kg and Rs.53,268/kg.

Zinc Trend

Zinc prices have resistance at Rs.105.9/kg and Rs.106.9/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to find support at Rs.103.4/kg and Rs.101.9/kg level.

Nickel Trend

Nickel prices have resistance at Rs.1,185/kg and Rs.1,196.3/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to take support at Rs.1,159.9/kg and Rs.1,146/kg level.

Lead Price

Lead prices are expected to have resistance at Rs.116.6/kg and Rs.118.2/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices have support at Rs.111.8/kg and Rs.108.7/kg level.

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MCX Commodity Base Metal Review

Gold Trend
Gold Apr futures on COMEX rose by 0.66 percent to $1,421.8 per troy ounce on Friday from $1,412.5 per troy ounce the prior day. Silver Mar futures on COMEX also gained 2.48 percent to $35.933 per troy ounce from $35.064 per troy ounce the prior day. Prices mainly got support from the ongoing Middle East crisis and the earthquake in Japan which prompted investors to seek shelter in safe haven assets. Gold/Silver ratio edged down to 39.5 on Friday from 40.1 on Thursday showing that the white metal still holds some investment demand. Holdings at Gold SPDR ETF declined by 1.82 tonnes to 1,215.48 tonnes on Friday while that of Silver holdings at iShares Silver Trust also showed redemption and holdings fell by 16.70 tonnes to 10,957.36 tonnes.

Crude Oil Trend
Crude oil futures on NYMEX declined on while that of Natural Gas Apr futures rose on concerns that higher gas demand in Japan would be required to replace lost nuclear capacity leading to tightening of global supply/demand balance. The natural calamity in the world’s third largest economy prompted investors to turn towards safe haven assets buying and gold and silver futures on COMEX. Libyan troops loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi have reportedly intensified their fight against rebels while attempting to retake the oil port of Ras Lanuf on Friday. On the other hand Saudi’s "Day of Rage" fizzled and passed quietly as citizens heeded a government ban on protests in the Kingdom.

Zinc Review
Zinc prices have resistance at Rs.103.2/kg and Rs.103.5/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to find support at Rs.102.8/kg and Rs.102.7/kg level.

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MCX Bullion Trend, MCX Commodity Review

- The recovery in the U.S. economy seems to be facing speed bumps with trade deficit for January 2011 that widened to a seven month high

 - Chinese Consumer Price Index rose 4.9 percent in February, 2011

MCX Trend

Yesterday U.S. greenback got strengthened and pressurized the Precious Metal Complex at COMEX. The dollar took support from a declining Euro which fell as Moody downgraded Spain’s Credit ratings by one notch. However the ongoing crisis in Middle East and North African countries is expected to upport the Precious Metals. Gold Apr futures on COMEX fell by 1.20% to close at $1,412.5 per troy ounce yesterday from $1,429.6 per troy ounce the prior day. Silver Mar futures also faced the heat and fell by 2.72% to $35.06 per troy ounce. Holdings at SPDR GOLD ETF and iShares Silver trust remained unchanged yesterday. Investment demand reduced and investors removed funds from the safe haven assets yesterday. Gold/silver ratio rose yesterday to 40.1 from 39.68 on 9 th Mar, 2011.

Silver Trend

Silver prices likely to face resistance at $36.1/troy ounce and $36.9/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs. 54,006/kg and Rs.55,039/kg level in MCX March contract. While on lower side prices can take support at $34.5/troy ounce and $33.8/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.52,272/kg and Rs.51,571/kg.

MCX Base Metal Trend

Base metals continue to look dull amid reports showing slow economic recovery in the U.S. and gloomy picture of China which reported trade deficit in Jan, 2011 for the first time since Mar, 2010. China is the largest consumer of industrial metals. The dragon country is putting in continuous efforts to tighten the money supply in an effort to curb inflation. The Inflation/Consumer Price Index for Feb 2011 grew by 4.9% same percentage growth as in the previous month to 110.5, higher than the analysts expectation of an increase by 4.7%. Higher global prices prompted profit-driven Chinese copper smelters to produce more metal in the January-February period despite the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday China's February copper output rose 3.8% on year to 386,000 metric tons, a decline of 5.6% from January's

409,000 tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Total output in the January-February period rose 7.9% to 795,000 tons.

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MCX Bullion Trend, MCX Commodity Review

Gold Price

Spot Gold prices traded lower by 0.5 percent today, mainly due to strength in the US dollar. But sharp declines were cushioned due to troubled sentiments in the global equity markets coupled with ongoing geo-political tension. Gold touched an intra-day low of $1420.90/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. MCX Gold April contract traded on a flat note today, as depreciation in the Rupee resisted further decline and was hovering around ` 21024/gms.

MCX Bullion Trend

Base metal prices traded lower on the LME today, mainly on the back of strength in the US dollar coupled with ongoing tension in Libya. Additionally, poor sentiments in the global financial markets also pulled metal prices in the downward direction. Depreciation in the domestic currency led minimal losses on the MCX today. The Spot Rupee depreciated 0.6 percent and was trading at 45 at 4.00 pm IST.

Outlook

Base metal prices are expected to trade lower today on the back of increasing turmoil in Libya. Additionally, poor sentiments in the global financial markets and a stronger dollar will also exert pressure. We expect crude oil prices to trade higher as ongoing geo-political tensions in Libya will increase supply fears and support prices today. We expect gold to trade higher in the evening session today, mainly on account of ongoing geo-political concerns and poor sentiments in the global

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MCX Bullion Trend

Gold Trend

Spot Gold prices traded in the positive territory, amid rising geo-political issues which continued to support demand for gold as a safe haven. But sharp gains in the yellow metal were capped on account of dollar strength. The US Dollar Index (DX) strengthened around 0.3 percent till 4.00 pm IST as concerns in the Middle East increased demand for the currency. Spot Silver prices on the other hand increased almost 1 percent and traded around $36.33/oz till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, silver prices gained almost 3 percent as Rupee depreciation supported gains.

Crude Oil Trend

Crude oil prices fell from its 2 1⁄2 year high that it touched on Monday after statement by the OPEC that it could increase output if supply concerns persist. The oil cartel also added that the supply situation was not at all tense and that prices were mainly rising due to fears. World supply continues to be comfortable despite loss in supply of crude from Libya.

MCX Bullion Review

Bullion prices are expected to trade higher on the back of uncertainty over ongoing geo-political concerns in Libya. But sharp gains could be capped on account of dollar strength.

Crude oil prices are expected to come under pressure as despite geo-political concerns in Libya, supply side concerns have eased on account of statement by the OPEC. Dollar strength will additionally put downside pressure on oil prices.

Base metals are expected to trade with a negative bias, taking cues from unrest in Libya, concerns over economic growth and dollar strength.

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MCX Commodity , Base Metal Trend

Gold Review

Spot Gold prices traded lower by 0.3 percent today, tracking the positive sentiments in the global equity markets which made investor to move towards riskier assets. Additionally, falling crude oil prices have also eased inflation fears which pressurized prices. Gold touched an intra-day low of $1422.35/oz and is hovering around at $1431.10/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. On the MCX, the yellow metal prices declined 0.4 percent and were trading at ` 21085/gms around the same time.

Positive sentiments in the global equity markets coupled with weakness in the US dollar helped base metal prices to trade higher on the LME today. Lead continued to be the top performer for the second consecutive day, as the metal prices gained almost 1 percent on the LME. Prices touched an intra-day high of $2591/tonne and were hovering around `2587/kg till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, lead prices gained more than 1 percent, mainly of the back of depreciation in the domestic currency.

Crude Oil Review

Nymex Crude oil prices came under pressure, dropping around 0.3 percent today, after the Arab League stated that a peace plan for Libya from Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez was under consideration. This factor led oil prices to trade lower at $101.94/bbl till 4.00 pm IST today. But depreciation in the Indian Rupee led MCX Crude oil contract.

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