MCX Commodity Base Metal Review

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Buy silver
At - 54950
tgt - 55100, 55180, 55360
SL - 54710

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Gold Report
Spot Gold prices traded lower by 0.2 percent today, mainly tracking strength in the US dollar. But sharp declines were capped due to ongoing geo-political worries that increased risk aversion which in turn boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Prices touched an intra-day low of $1423.50/oz and were hovering around $1426.16/oz till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, gold witnessed further declines mainly on account of Rupee appreciation in today’s trading session.

Crude Oil Report
Crude oil prices traded on a flat note today and touched an intra-day low of $105.03/bbl till 4.00 pm IST. Prices came under pressure after rebels regained control of all key oil terminals in the eastern half of Libya, namely Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Brega, Zueitina and Tobruk. Qatar has also agreed to market crude oil produced from these oil fields. Output from oilfields stood at about 100,000 to 130,000 barrels per day (bpd), which could be increased to 300,000 bpd. This has eased the supply concerns and put pressure on oil prices in today’s trading session. On the MCX, crude oil May contract declined around 0.1 percent and were hovering at `4730/bbl today.

Outlook for Metal
We expect gold to trade with a positive bias today, taking cues from worries over sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone and geo-political tensions. But, strength in the US dollar will cap sharp gains.

Crude oil prices are expected to come under pressure today, mainly on account of dollar strength and poor sentiments in the global financial markets.

Base metals are expected to lower today, mainly tracking weak market sentiments coupled with strength in the US dollar. Additionally, Euro Zone debt concerns and ongoing geo-political tensions will further exert pressure on prices.

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Silver Tips

Sell Silver - 55600
Tgt - 55000, 55350
SL - 55800

MCX Commodity Base Metal Review

Base Metal Trend for Today

Gold/Silver Ratio continued to show strength in the white metal as it edged down further to close at 38.67 on 23rd Mar, 2011 from 39.29 on 22nd Mar, 2011 indicating that silver still attracts investment demand from the investors. Gold Apr futures on COMEX continued to end in green territory for the sixth consecutive day showing a 0.73 percent gain. Futures closed at $1,438 per troy ounce yesterday from $1,427.6 per troy ounce the prior day. Silver May futures on COMEX also tasted green colour the sixth consecutive day to close at $37.198 per troy ounce yesterday, a 2.56 percent gain from $36.269

per troy ounce the prior day.

Silver Trend

Silver prices likely to face resistance at $37.7/troy ounce and $38.2/troy ounce level on COMEX May futures i.e. at Rs.55,978/kg and Rs.56,458/kg in MCX May contract. While on lower side prices can take support at $36.4/troy ounce and $35.6/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.54,583/kg and Rs.53,668/kg in

MCX May contract.

Copper trend

Copper May futures on COMEX and three month futures on London Metal Exchange surged up for the second consecutive day and rose by 2.68 percent and 2.80 percent respectively yesterday. Futures at COMEX closed at $4.4285 per pound on 23rd Mar, 2011 from $4.313 per pound the prior day while at LME they closed at $9,745 per ton yesterday from $9,480 per ton. All the Base Metals three month futures ended in green yesterday at LME with Aluminium up 1.57 percent, Zinc up 4.19 percent, Lead up 1.86 percent and Nickel up 1.70 percent. Chilean miner Codelco, plans to ship an additional 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes of copper cathodes to Japan after this month's devastating quake coupled with a drawdown in the LME warehouse inventory after a week yesterday also supported the Copper futures. These bullish demand views slowed the dismal housing report from the U.S. Today in the afternoon session we have Euro PMI and U.K. Retail Sales both with negative expectation for Base Metals. In the evening session of the trade we also have U.S. Durable Goods Orders which are expected to support the prices of Base Metals.

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Daily Commodity MCX Overview

Spot Gold prices traded higher by 0.2 percent today, as growing geo- political worries increased safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. In addition to this, weakness in the US dollar also supported prices. Prices touched an intra-day high of $1432.05/oz and were hovering around $1427.85/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. MCX Gold April contract declined by 0.2 percent and was hovering around `  0,906/gms. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee exerted pressure on prices on the domestic bourses today.

Base metals complex delivered mixed performance on the LME today, as tensions in Libya exerted downside pressure on prices. But, weakness in the US dollar coupled with positive sentiments in the global financial markets cushioned sharp fall today.

Outlook

Base metals are expected to trade with a positive bias today, mainly on the back of weakness in the US dollar coupled with positive sentiments in the global financial markets. But geo-political tensions will cap sharp gains

Oil prices are expected to trade higher on the back of spreading unrest in the Middle East Additionally, dollar weakness will also be supportive. We expect gold to trade higher, taking cues from weakness in the US dollar and geo-political worries.

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MCX Commodity Base Metal Review

Precious Metal Gold & Silver Trend

On Friday Precious Metals complex got support from the authorization of military attacks on Libya which rose the demand for the safe haven assets as investors parked funds in them on concerns of geo – political uncertainty arising due to concerns of a war erupting in the Libyan country. Gold Apr futures on COMEX rose by 0.85% to $1,416.1 per troy ounce on 18 th Mar, 2011 from $1,404.2 per troy ounce on 17th Mar, 2011 while Silver May futures on COMEX also showed strength and rose by 2.34 percent to $35.058 per troy ounce on Friday from $34.258 per troy ounce the prior day. Gold/Silver ratio edged down to 40.39 on 18 th Mar, 2011 from 40.93 on 17th Mar, 2011 indicating more investment demand for the white metal.

Crude Oil Trend

Crude oil future on NYMEX erased their gains and shed by 0.35 percent to $101.07 per barrel on 18 th Mar, 2011 form $101.42 per barrel on 17th Mar, 2011. The cease fire on military actions from Libya against rebels pressurized the crude oil futures; however renewed concerns of military action if Libya does not comply with the International community demand supported the futures. Today Crude oil prices will face resistance at $103.10/barrel and $105.1/barrel i.e. at Rs.4,628/barrel and Rs.4,728/barrel in MCX Apr contract while on the lower side prices can take support at $99.60/barrel and $98.10/barrel i.e. at Rs.4,471/barrel and Rs.4,412/barrel in MCX Apr contract.

Zinc Trend

Zinc prices have resistance at Rs.105.9/kg and Rs.107.2/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to find support at Rs.103.8/kg and Rs.103.0/kg level.

Nickel Review

Nickel prices have resistance at Rs.1,219.50/kg and Rs.1,233.50/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to take support at Rs.1,181.80/kg and Rs.1,158.10/kg level.

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MCX Commodity Base Metal Review

Base Metals Complex on COMEX and LME continued to end in green yesterday as they got support from U.S. Philadelphia Manufacturing Index which expanded at the fastest pace since 1984. The index buoyed by surge in factory orders increased to 43.4 in Mar, 2011 from the prior months 35.9  nderscoring the Fed’s view of U.S. economic expansion on “firm footing”. Copper Apr futures on COMEX and three month futures on LME showed a day’s gain of 3.56 percent and 3.58 percent respectively. U.S. Industrial Production Index negated the analyst’s expected rise by 0.6 percent and showed a modest decline by 0.1 percent to 95.5 in Feb, 2011 following 95.6 in Jan, 2011 when it rose by 0.3 percent.

Crude Oil Review

Crude Oil Apr futures on NYMEX rose yesterday by 3.51 percent for the second consecutive day to $101.42 per barrel from $97.98 per barrel on 16th Mar, 2011. Prices mainly got support from the escalating tensions in Bahrain and Libya. The U.N. decision of imposing a no – fly zone and going for an air strike with Gaddafi’s forces would further support the Crude oil futures. Today Crude oil prices will face resistance at $103.46/barrel and $105.4/barrel i.e. at Rs.4,651/barrel and Rs.4,716/barrel in MCX Apr contract while on the lower side prices can take support at $98.0/barrel and $94.6/barrel i.e. at Rs.4,478/barrel and Rs.4,370/barrel in MCX Apr contract.

ZINC Review

Zinc prices have resistance at Rs.106.4/kg and Rs.107.7/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to find support at Rs.103.3/kg and Rs.101.6/kg level.

Nickel Review

Nickel prices have resistance at Rs.1,190.3/kg and Rs.1,206.6/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to take support at Rs.1,146/kg and Rs.1,118.0/kg level.

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