MCX Commodity bullion Trend

Bullion Metal Trend

Precious metals got support from the weak economic data dissipated from U.S. showing a weaker growth but soon lost their shine a 3 year high Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Some profit booking was also seen in the Precious Metal complex. Gold Apr futures on COMEX fell by 0.46% to $1,409.3/troy ounce from $1,415.80/troy ounce while Silver Mar futures also declined by 0.81% to $32.9/troy ounce from $33.17/troy ounce. Gold/Silver ratio rose to 42.7 on Friday from 42.63 the prior day.

Today in the afternoon session we have the inflation data from Euro zone and is expected to remain flat to 2.4 percent on year on year basis. If the inflation is more than expected then the prospects of a rate hike would strengthen and would support the Euro. Today in the later session of the day we have U.S. spending data which is expected to increase by 0.4 percent. Any deviation to upside would support the prices of the precious metals complex. Today Gold prices will face resistance at $1,415/troy ounce and $1,420/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.20,939/10gm and Rs.20,977/10gm level in MCX April contract while on the lower side Support can be seen at $1,402/troy ounce and $1,394.6/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.20,939/10gm and Rs.20, 917/10gm level.

Silver Trend

Silver prices likely to face resistance at $32.5/troy ounce and $33.8/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs. 49,767/kg and Rs.50,313/kg level in MCX March contract. While on lower side prices can take support at $32.5/troy ounce and $31.6/troy ounce level i.e. at Rs.49,767/kg and Rs.49,433/kg.

Crude Oil Trend

Crude oil Apr futures on NYMEX rose by 0.62% to $97.88/barrel from $97.28/barrel amid unrest spreading to Oman, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Even though on Friday NYMEX boosted the margin requirement on oil futures for the first time since March 2009 as crude traded above $100 a barrel to $6,075 per contract from $5,063 failed to pressurize the crude oil prices. The latest change on ICE also showed a boost in the Brent margin to $5,200 from $4,850 per contract along with the news in the market that Saudi Arabia has boosted the oil supplies by 9 million barrels per day were kept aside. What weighed on the bearish news were the unrest which continued in Libya and Bahrain along with the unrest which started yesterday in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer.

Zinc Review

Zinc prices have resistance at Rs.114.4/kg and Rs.113.7/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to target Rs.109.7/kg and Rs.108/kg level.

Nickel Review

Nickel prices have resistance at Rs.1,293/kg and Rs.1,303.8/kg level in MCX March contract and selling can be seen there. While on lower side prices are expected to take support at Rs.1,262/kg and Rs.1,241.8/kg level.

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Commodity MCX, NCDEX Review

MCX Commodity Trend

Base metals came under pressure mainly taking cues from ongoing concerns in Libya coupled with strength in the US dollar. Copper was the only metal to gain on the LME in today’s trading session. Decline of 1.8 percent in weekly Shanghai copper inventories acted as a supportive factor for prices to gain. The red metal traded up 0.5 percent on the LME and were hovering around $9554.75/tonne at 4.30 pm IST. But Rupee appreciation led MCX copper to trade on a flat note today.

We expect base metals to trade lower mainly due to strength in the US dollar today. Crude oil prices are expected to trade higher mainly taking cues from ongoing geo-political worries. However, sharp gains in the oil prices will be capped due to strength in the US dollar. We expect gold to trade higher today, mainly taking cues from ongoing turmoil in Libya which will increase safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, rising crude oil prices will also help the yellow metal to rise as an inflation-hedge.

NCDEX Commodity Trend

Guar Review

Guar futures in the intraday are expected to recover tracking the firmness in the crude oil prices and revival in the export demand. In the short term (2 - 3 weeks) we expect Guar prices to trade sideways to down due to decline in the overseas orders at higher rates and may trade in the range of Rs.2800 and Rs. 3050 per qtl.

In the medium term (2 months), prices would be dependent on the overseas demand scenario.

Sugar review

Sugar prices in the intraday are expected to recover owing to expectation that the government might release lower quota in the month of March and positive statement by the farm minister with respect to Sugar exports. Overall sentiments in the medium term would depend on the permissible Sugar exports by India. Prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 – Rs. 2900 per qtl levels.

Turmeric Review

Turmeric prices in the intraday will trade sideways to up due to recovery in demand from overseas and domestic buyers. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term turmeric prices may trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals owing to better production.

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MCX Commodity Updates

Spot Gold continued to trade higher today, as worries in the Middle East and North Africa increased safe-haven demand for gold. Geo-political worries in Libya continued as there are no signs of leader Muammar Gaddafi stepping down after 41 years in power. This led investors to flock towards gold as a safe-haven investment. In addition to this weakness in the US dollar also helped the yellow metal prices to rise today.

Base metals came under pressure mainly taking cues from poor sentiments in the global equity markets today. As the crisis in Libya worsened, investors moved away from riskier assets. Nickel was the worst performer of the day, as the metal prices have slipped around 2.6 percent on the LME and were trading at $27,750/tonne at 4.00 pm IST today.

We expect base metals to trade lower mainly due to weak sentiments in the global markets today. While, crude oil prices are expected to trade with a positive bias mainly taking cues from ongoing geo-political worries and weakness in the US dollar today. But sharp gains in prices will be capped due to poor sentiments in the global markets and expected rise in US oil inventories. Geo-political worries will help the bullion pack to trade higher today. Additionally, weakness in the US dollar will also act as a supportive factor for gold prices to rise.

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MCX Bullion Trend

MCX Bullion Trend

Spot Gold prices ended slightly lower on Tuesday as investors sold the yellow metal in order to cover losses. During yesterday’s trade Spot Gold prices touched a seven-week high of $1410/oz but slipped by the end of trade. Prices had risen sharply in the last few days and profit-booking at higher levels was inevitable. Geo-political concerns and inflation risks persists and these will continue to boost gold prices in the short-term.

Silver prices too witnessed downside pressure yesterday as the white metal slipped 2.3 percent to close at $33.07/oz after touching a high of $34.30/oz. Prices fell from 31-year high, taking cues from decline in gold prices. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell to 10519.05 tonnes on 18 February.

Precious metals will continue to take support from geo-political concerns which will boost demand from the safe-haven perspective. Rising oil prices raise risk of inflation and this will assure demand for gold as an inflation hedge.

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MCX Commodity bullion Trend

MCX Bullion Trend

Silver Trend

Silver prices gained sharply in today’s trade with prices Spot Gold and MCX Silver March prices rising a whopping 2.5 percent till 4.00pm IST. The white metal prices hit a high of Rs49,924/kg and moved towards the crucial Rs50,000 mark. Demand for silver in India is rising and the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) expects imports to be around 2400 tonnes in 2011.

Gold Trend

Spot Gold prices continued to rise on Monday as continuing unrest in the Middle East and North Africa boosted demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset. Prices rose despite strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) today. Mixed sentiments prevailed in the global financial markets which began the day on a weak note. Spot Gold prices gained almost 1 percent till 4.00pm IST and are currently trading around the crucial $1400/oz mark. Prices on the MCX gained 0.8 percent and appreciation in the

Rupee capped further gains.

Copper Trend

Copper prices stabilized in today’s trading session after witnessing sharp fall in the last week. Prices on the LME are currently hovering around $9870/levels but continue to remain below the crucial $10000/mark. We expect downside pressure in the red metal as demand concerns persist and China’s move to continue to tighten its monetary policy is also negative.

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Daily MCX Commodity Trend

MCX Commodity Trend

Gold Review

Spot Gold prices traded higher today as rising tensions in the Middle East led to demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven. Apart from that, inflationary pressures are also supporting demand for gold as an inflation hedge. But MCX Gold April contract witnessed downside pressure till 4.00 pm IST as appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped gains in the domestic markets.

Copper Review

Copper prices continued to witness downside pressure on inflation worries coupled with concerns over demand for the red metal. It has been witnessed that, Chinese activity in the copper market is low because of the recent impact of Chinese New Year holidays. Also, there are fears that China could further raise interest rates, thereby leading to concern that demand from the world’s largest consumer may get affected.

Crude Oil Review

Nymex Crude Oil prices continued the uptrend as the Israel-Iran tension and unrest in the Middle East led to expectations over supply disruption. But sharp rise in prices was restricted on account of rise in inventories by 860,000 million barrels to 345.9 million barrels, marking the fifth straight weekly rise.

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