MCX Commodity , Base Metal Trend

Commodity MCX Review

Gold Review

Spot Gold prices were trading on a flat note in the Asian trading session today. Sharp declines in the yellow metal prices were cushioned on the downside due to unrest in Egypt and poor sentiments in the global financial markets today. At 4.00 pm IST, spot gold was quoting at $1333.53/oz, whereas on the MCX, the February futures contract for delivery was trading at `19,947/10 gm, down 0.5 percent at the same time.

Copper Trend

MCX Copper (February Contract) touched an all time-high of `449.90/kg in today’s trading session. The red metal prices gained more than 1.45 percent on the MCX and were hovering around `449.10/kg till 4.00 pm IST. Depreciation of the domestic currency helped copper prices to gain more on the Indian bourses today. Expectations of healthy demand from China, the world’s top metal consumers, weakness in the US dollar and fall in the metal inventory on the LME warehouse acted as a positive factor. LME copper inventories declined by 1percent to reach at 394,025 tonnes today. As per the data by the Ministry of Finance released today, refined copper exports of Japan declined 23.3 percent in December from a year earlier to 31,180 tonnes.

Crude Oil Review

Crude oil prices were trading higher in the Asian trade today, with the Nymex March futures up around 0.2 percent till 4.00 pm IST. Oil prices gained on the back of concerns in Egypt, on expected supply concerns and weakness dollar further supported the prices. On the MCX, the February futures contract was quoting at `4141/bbl, up by almost 1 percent at 4.00 pm IST. Depreciation of the Indian Rupee helped oil prices to gain further on the domestic markets today.

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MCX Gold, Silver Updates

Both precious metals, gold and silver, witnessed major losses on Friday, falling by Rs 230 to Rs 20,400 per 10 grams and Rs 1,540 to Rs 42,850 per kg, respectively, due to heavy sell off by stockists on weak global cues, amid sluggish demand. Gold in global markets, which normally sets a price trend on the domestic front, dropped by $24.90 to $1345.60 an ounce and silver lost 4.52 per cent to $27.47 an ounce in New York last night.

On the domestic front, silver ready remained under heavy selling pressure from stockists and plunged by Rs 1,540 to Rs 42,850 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 1,660 to Rs 42,445 per kg.

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Daily Commodity Updates

MCX Trend

Gold prices traded in the negative territory today, as positive economic data from Germany helped ease concerns with regard to the Euro Zone debt crisis. Any signal of economic recovery in the US and the Euro Zone is expected to lead to downside pressure on the yellow metal. On the MCX, gold prices declined around 0.5 percent till 5.00pm IST.

Base metal prices also received support on news of improvement in German business confidence. Copper, the leader of the base metals pack gained almost 1 percent till 5.00 pm IST. But prices may come under pressure as latest data indicates that China’s refined copper imports declined 8.4 percent in 2010 to 2.92 million tonnes as against a record high 3.19 million tonnes touched in 2009. Annual apparent consumption of refined copper in China also grew at a slow pace of 4.6 percent in 2010 as against growth of 38.9 percent in 2009.

MCX Outlook

There is no economic data to be released from the US today. We expect commodities to take cues from recent positive business confidence data of Germany. On the back of improvement in sentiments, we expect gold prices to come under pressure. Base metal prices are expected to rise as sentiments improve over recovery in Germany, Euro Zone’s largest economy. But sharp gains in copper will be capped as data indicates a decline in Chinese imports for 2010. Crude oil prices are expected to trade in the positive territory as market sentiments improve on positive European economic data. Dollar weakness will additionally support upside in oil prices today.

NCDEX Trend

Guar Review

Guar futures may trade firm in the intraday on expectations of improved demand from the local and overseas buyers. In the short term (2 - 3 weeks), we expect Guar prices to improve due to increase in the fresh export enquires and trade in the range of Rs. 2600 and Rs. 2750 per qtl. In the medium term (2 months), prices would be dependent on the overseas demand scenario.

Chana Review

Chana prices in the intraday may trade sideways to firm due to improved buying at the support levels. Reports of crop damage in M.P and demand from the domestic stockists might also help prices to gain. In the short to medium term weather would be an important factor to term, be watched for as the final estimates on the crop would mainly depend on the weather conditions during the crop development period.

Sugar Review

Sugar prices are expected to decline further in the intraday due to sufficient supplies in the domestic markets. Currently, Sugar prices at Kolhapur are trading around Rs. 2800 per qtl levels. We expect Spot prices at Kolhapur to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 and Rs. 3000 per qtl levels for the rest of the month. Ongoing crushing may put some pressure on the prices. However, any significant decline in the prices due to crushing may be treated as a good buying opportunity for the medium term term. In the medium to long term domestic Sugar price movement would be dependent on the permissible sugar exports from the country. Domestic sugar could gain if exports are allowed given the high sugar prices prevailing in the global markets.

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Commodity Updates

MCX Updates

Gold Review

Gold prices were trading lower in the international markets today,mainly on account of strong economic data from China. At 4.00 pm IST, spot gold prices were trading at $1364.35/oz, down around 0.4percent. On the MCX, gold futures declined more than 0.5 percent and were hovering at RS 20, 285/10 gms around the same time.

Crude Oil Review

Crude oil prices declined around 0.4 percent on the Nymex today, on account of worries over China’s steps to curb inflation. However, sharp declines were cushioned due to expectations of decline in the US inventories and weakness in the dollar today. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $90.17/bbl and were hovering around $90.46/bbl till 4.00 pm IST. The US Energy Department (EIA) is expected to release its weekly inventory data later in the evening today. According to the Reuters poll, crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 0.6 million barrels for the week ended 14th January.

MCX Outlook

There is host of economic data to be released from the US today- Unemployment Claims, Existing Home sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing and CB leading index. Base metal and crude oil prices are expected to trade lower despite positive data from China because investors are currently factoring in the rise in interest rates by the central bank of China. Gold prices are expected to trade lower, but a weaker US dollar would cushion sharp downside in the yellow metal prices.

NCDEX Review

Pepper Review

Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to trade firm due to lower arrivals and better offtakes. In the medium to long term (February onwards), price trend will depend on pepper stocks with major producers and Black pepper production estimates of Vietnam for 2011. Black pepper production is likely to be lower by around 9 percent to 1 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.10 lakh tonnes the previous year. In the short term (till January), Pepper prices will depend on demand from the overseas and domestic market and fresh arrivals in the physical mandi in Kochi.

Turmeric Review

Turmeric prices in the intraday will trade sideways with positive bias due to improved buying by the market participants. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term prices are likely to trade bearish due to term increase in the arrivals ahead of better production.

Jeera Updates

Jeera prices in the intraday may trade with positive bias owing to expectation of fresh export enquires from the overseas buyers. In medium to long term (February onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and fresh arrivals in the domestic mandis.

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MCX Updates

Spot gold prices received support mainly from the weaker US dollar, but subdued trading was witnssed across the bourses. The yellow metal prices gained around 0.4percent in the Asian trade today and were hovering around $1373.15/oz at 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, gold prices were trading slightly higher by 0.2 and touched an intra- day high of `20,385/10 gm around the same time. Appreciation of the domestic currency capped further gains in gold prices on the Indian exchange today.

Copper prices hit a fresh record high of $9781/tonne in today’s trading session. The red metal prices rose more than 0.5 percent and were hovering at $9731/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. Factors that influenced the prices were – weakness in the US dollar and improved outlook for demand of copper as an industrial metal from China, the world’s largest metal consumer.

We expect metal prices to trade on a positive note today mainly taking cues from weakness in the US dollar. But, in the evening session, volatility may be witnessed ahead of a host of economic data to be released from China tomorrow. Although GDP growth is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter with moderating inflation, industrial production is expected to increase m-o-m in December 2010. Crude oil prices are expected to trade higher today on expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories and hopes of increasing demand in the current year. Moreover, weakness in the US dollar will also support an upside in prices today. Gold prices may be cushioned by a weaker US currency but we don expect prices to trigger in today’s session.

NCDEX Updates

Guar futures may trade firm in the intraday on expectations of improved demand from local stockists. Guar Seed Chart In the short term (2 - 3 weeks) we expect Guar prices to improve due to weeks), increase in the fresh export enquires and trade in the range of Rs. 2600 and Rs. 2750 per qtl levels. In the medium term (2 months), prices would be dependent on the overseas demand scenario.

Sugar prices are expected to remain decline in the intraday due to sufficient supplies in the domestic markets. Currently, Sugar prices at Kolhapur are trading around Rs. 2800 per qtl levels. We expect Spot prices at Kolhapur to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 and Rs. 3000 per qtl levels for the rest of the month. Ongoing crushing may put some pressure on the prices. However, any significant decline in the prices due to crushing may be treated as a good buying opportunity for the medium term. In the medium to long term domestic Sugar price movement would be dependent on the permissible sugar exports from the country. Domestic sugar could gain if exports are allowed given the high sugar prices prevailing in the global markets.

Turmeric prices in the intraday will trade bearish due to fresh arrivals Turmeric Chart in the domestic market and lacklustre trades. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term prices are likely to trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals ahead of better production.

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MCX Trend, NCDEX Trend

Commodity MCX, NCDEX Review

MCX Trend

The GFMS Ltd. said that gold investment globally rose to a fresh record of $63.7 billion in 2010, a rise of 9 percent in value terms year-on-year. Global bar hoarding increased sharply with demand increasing 52percent in China, the world's largest bar hoarding market. A major reason behind such huge demand from China is the rising inflation which increased 5.1percent in November 2010.

On an intra-day basis, we expect gold prices to take support today ahead of skepticism regarding further developments in the Euro zone. Moreover, the US-China meetings which begin from today also remain a crucial watch as on one hand China refrains from accepting itself as a currency manipulator and on the other hand, US authorities may force Chinese President to take adequate steps to lead the Yuan to appreciate.

Commodity NCDEX Review

Chana Outlook

Chana prices in the intraday may trade firm with reports of crop damage in M.P and demand from the domestic stockists. In the short to medium term weather would be an important factor to term, be watched for as the final estimates on the crop would mainly depend on the weather conditions during the crop development period

Sugar Review

Sugar prices are expected to remain under pressure in the intraday due to sufficient supplies in the domestic markets. Currently, Sugar prices at Kolhapur are trading around Rs. 2800 per qtl levels. We expect Spot prices at Kolhapur to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 and Rs. 3000 per qtl levels for the rest of the month. Ongoing crushing may put some pressure on the prices. However, any significant decline in the prices due to crushing may be treated as a good buying opportunity for the medium term. In the medium to long term domestic Sugar prices are expected to recover due to supply tightness in the global markets amidst higher parity of the international Raw as well as white sugar.

Turmeric Review

Turmeric prices in the intraday will range bound due to lacklustre trades. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term prices are likely to trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals ahead of better production.

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MCX Commodity Updates

Spot Silver prices declined more than 1 percent in the Asian trade today on the back of strength in the US dollar. Moreover, investors also remained skeptical ahead of China’s data to be released this week as the white metal is also widely used in industries. On the MCX, silver prices were down 0.5 percent and were hovering at `43481/kg till 4.00 pm IST. Spot gold prices declined around 0.2 percent in the Asian trade today and were hovering around $1358.55/oz around the same time. However, on the MCX, gold prices were trading slightly higher at `20,258/10 gm due to Rupee deprecation today.

Crude oil prices came under pressure in today’s trading session mainly taking cues from stronger US dollar and mixed European and Asian equities. Prices declined almost 0.5 percent on the Nymex, touching an intra-day low of $90.83/bbl till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, oil prices witnessed minimal losses mainly due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee.

There is no major economic data to be released from US today, as the  markets will be closed on observance of Martin Luther King Day.  Base metal prices will mainly take cues from the movement in the US  dollar today. But, sharp movements may not be witnessed on the  absence of major market driver. Hence, we expect metal prices to  trade slightly lower mainly taking cues from strength in the US dollar.  Crude oil prices may receive some support on the back of hopes of  increase in heating oil demand from colder regions. But sharp rise  will be capped on the back of strength in the US dollar and mixed  sentiments in the global equity markets. Gold prices may receive  slight support ahead of the Euro zone financial ministers meeting  which has began today.

NCDEX Commodity Review

Guar Review

Guar futures may trade firm in the intraday on expectations of improved demand from local stockists. In the short term we expect Guar prices to gradually to recover from term, the current levels as the arrivals will continue to decline with harvests nearing its end, while demand from the overseas market may see an improvement in the coming weeks. term, In the medium term prices would be influenced by the final crop estimates of Guar by the Rajasthan farm department and the demand from the overseas markets.

Sugar Review

In the intraday, Sugar prices are expected to remain firm as the government has given a positive decision with regards to the exports under OGL. Currently Sugar prices at Kolhapur are trading around Rs. 2815 per qtl levels. We expect Spot prices at Kolhapur to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 and Rs. 3000 per qtl levels for the rest of the month. Ongoing crushing may put some pressure on the prices. However, any significant decline in the prices due to crushing may be treated as a good buying opportunity for the medium term. In the medium to long term domestic Sugar prices are expected to recover due to supply tightness in the global markets amidst higher parity of the international Raw as well as white sugar.

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Commodity Trend

MCX Trend

China’s move to control the country’s inflation, led to downside pressure on Base Metal prices today. In addition to this, strength in the US dollar coupled with mixed sentiments in the global equity markets also acted as a negative factor for metals. Nickel declined the most amongst the base metal pack in today’s trading session. The metal declined almost 1.5 percent on the LME, touching an intra-day low of $25,250/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. On the MCX, prices witnessed less declines due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee today. Spot Rupee declined more than 0.5 percent today.

Gold still remains attractive from a short-term to long-term perspective but prices may come under pressure today as investors may shun commodities and equities on news of China. Also, the news has come in at the last trading day of the week amid already existing economic concerns. On the back of this dollar is expected to strengthen and this factor too may put downside pressure on gold prices today.

NCDEX Trend

Jeera

Jeera prices in the intraday will trade bearish due to lacklustre trades at the domestic market. Fresh arrivals in the domestic mandi in the short term may also help bears in the market. In medium to long term (February onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and growth of the sown jeera crop particularly in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices in the intraday will trace arrivals in the domestic mandi. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term prices are likely to trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals ahead of better production.

Black perrer

Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to trade sideways with bullish note due to improved buying by the market. In the short term (till January), Pepper prices will depend on demand short from the overseas and domestic market and fresh arrivals pattern in the physical mandi in Kochi.In the medium to long term (February onwards), price trend will depend on pepper stocks with major producers and Black pepper production estimates of Vietnam for 2011.

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Commodity MCX Trend

All the base metals came under pressure due to strength in the US dollar and mixed sentiments in the global equity markets today. Copper was the worst performer of the day, as the metal prices declined more than 1 percent on the LME today. Prices touched an intra-day low of $9573/tonne on the LME and were hovering around $9578/tonne till 4.00 pm IST. On the MCX, the red metal prices witnessed less declines due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee today.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices traded lower in today’s session, mainly taking cues from strength in the US dollar and mixed sentiments in the global financial markets today. Prices declined around 0.2 percent and touched an intra-day low of $91.61/bbl till 4.00 pm IST today. But, depreciation of the domestic currency led oil prices to trade higher around 0.7 percent on the MCX around the same time.

Commodity NCDEX Trend

Guar Review

Guar futures may trade firm in the intraday on expectations of improved demand from local stockists. Prices may also trace the arrival pattern, which have been lower this week. In the short term, we expect Guar prices to recover gradually from the current level as the arrivals will decline further whereas demand from the overseas market would improve in the coming weeks. In the medium term, prices would depend on the final crop estimates of Guar by the Rajasthan farm department and the demand from the overseas markets.

Chana Review

Chana prices may trade firm with reports of crop damage in M.P and demand from the domestic stockists. In the short to medium term (1 month), price gains may be capped on positive reports of sowing and fresh arrivals from Karnataka. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the crop estimates of rabi Chana. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana futures.

Turmeric Review

Turmeric prices in the intraday will trace arrivals in the domestic mandi. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term prices are likely to trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals ahead of better production.

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Commodity NCDEX Trend for the day

Commodity NCDEX Review

Guar Trend

Guar futures today may trade firm on likely improved demand from local stockists. Prices may also trace the arrival pattern, which have been lower this week. In the short term, we expect Guar prices to recover gradually from the current level as the arrivals will decline further whereas demand from the overseas market would improve in the coming weeks. In the medium term trend prices would depend on the final crop estimates of Guar by the Rajasthan farm department and the demand from the overseas markets.

Chana Trend

Chana prices may trade range bound with reports of crop damage in M.P and better production of Chana in 2011. In the short to medium term (1-2 week), price gains may be capped on positive reports of sowing and fresh arrivals from Karnataka. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the crop estimates of rabi Chana. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana futures.

Sugar Reivew

Sugar futures may continue to trade lower in the short term (till January) as crushing is progressing well in Maharashtra and UP. Decision on delay in exports would also add to the bearish market sentiments. Spot prices at Kolhapur are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 and Rs. 3000 per qtl levels in the month of January. In the medium to long term Sugar prices are expected to recover due to supply tightness in the global markets amidst higher parity of the international Raw as well as white sugars.

Soybean Trend

On Intraday basis, soybean prices are expected to trade range bound with sentiments on losses of Soybean futures at Chicago Board of Trade. Mustard seed prices are expected to trade slightly lower on account of higher production estimates of RM Seed this year as compared to last year. Soy oil prices are expected to trade range bound on lack of fresh fundamentals. However, (for long term perspectives) prices are expected to move northwards as global shortage of vegetable oil couple with strong demand of edible oils

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MCX Review

Gold prices gained, albeit marginally on Monday after witnessing a sharpfall last week. The yellow metal prices gained after concerns with regard to Portugal needing a financial bailout emerged in the markets. Moreover,prices also received support on the back of bargain hunting as investors were attracted after slight correction in prices last week.On an intra-day basis, we expect gold prices to trade in the green, with demand mainly emerging on the back of Euro zone concerns. But, a sharp trigger is also not witnessed on the upside as the US dollar is also expected to strengthen simultaneously. A stronger greenback usually makes dollar-denominated commodity prices look unattractive for holders of other currencies.

Supply concerns in crude oil due to shut down in the Alaska pipeline supported oil prices on Monday. Alaska pipeline is one of the key oil arteries of US, carrying about 12 percent of the country’s production. Due to this leak, the company was forced to cut its production to 5 percent of their average 630,000 barrels per day. Prices rallied, gaining around 1.5percent on the Nymex and touched an intra-day high of $89.98/bbl. On the MCX, crude oil prices surged more than 1 percent

yesterday, touching an intra-day high of `4082/bbl.

Natural gas prices declined sharply by more than 1percent on theNymex on Monday, touching an intra-day low of $4.322/mmBtu. Gas prices declined mainly on the back of weak sentiments in the global equity markets yesterday. But demand for gas from the colder regions for heating purpose cushioned further downside in the gas prices. On the MCX, gas prices traded lower by around 0.7 percent, to close at `201.2 on Monday. Outlook Crude Oil We expect crude oil prices to trade higher today on the back of supply concerns due to shut down in Alaska pipeline. But sharp gains will be

capped due to strength in the US dollar in today’s trading session.

Aluminium prices declined almost1 percent on the LME as well as on the MCX on Monday. The metal prices touched an intra-day low of $2475/tonne and close at $2491/tonne yesterday. Choppy sentiments in the global equity markets coupled with rising inventory levels on the LME warehouse acted as a negative factor for prices. The metal inventories increased a whopping 97,100 tonnes to 4,369,500 tonnes on Monday.

NCDEX Review

Guar Review

• Guar prices closed above its 10-Day EMA and its 20-Day EMA indicating a bullish trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 53.7 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Guar futures may trade firm due to demand from local stockists. Prices may also trace the arrival pattern. In the medium term trend would depend on final crop estimates of Guar by the state farm department and the demand from the overseas markets. Movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar and the trend in crude oil prices would also influence Guar futures in the long run.

Chana Review

• Chana prices on daily charts closed below its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating bearish trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 48.1 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Chana prices may trade range bound with reports of crop damage in M.P and better production of Chana in 2011 . In the short to medium term (1-2 week), price gains may be capped on positive reports of sowing and fresh arrivals from Karnataka. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana futures.

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Gold Review

Gold prices declined sharply last week, with spot prices in the international markets declining more than 3 percent. Slight revival in the US employment scenario raised hopes of recovery in the world’s largest economy, decreasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven investment. Gold prices are expected to remain under pressure today as demand for high-yielding and riskier assets will be witnessed on signs of improving economic scenario in the US. But, the US dollar is simultaneously expected to remain weak today and this factor will cushion sharp downside in the yellow metal prices.

Crude Oil Review

Nymex crude oil (February contract) started the year with a weekly loss, its biggest drop since mid November 2010. Oil prices came under pressure mainly on the back of strength in the US dollar and weak sentiments in the global equity markets in the last week. Prices declined almost 4 percent on the Nymex and touched a low of $87.25/bbl. On the MCX, crude oil prices dropped almost 2.5 percent in the last week, touching a low of `3977/bbl. Depreciation of the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp decline in crude oil prices on the domestic bourses last week.

Copper Review

Copper prices declined the most on the LME as well as on the MCX in the last week. The red metal prices slipped more than 3 percent on the LME, touching a low of $9300/tonne last week. Strength in the US dollar and choppy sentiments in the global equity markets led to decline in prices. In addition to this, rising inventory levels on the LME warehouse also acted as a negative factor for prices last week. LME copper inventories increased by 0.5 percent in the last week to reach 379,525 tonnes on Friday. The red metal prices witnessed less declines on the MCX, due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee resisting further drop in prices on the domestic exchange.

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Commodity NCDEX Trend for the day

NCDEX Review for the Day

Guar Review

• Guar prices closed above its 10-Day EMA and at its 20-Day EMA indicating a bullish trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 48.49 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the positive territory.

Guar futures may trade range bound on Saturday due to arrival pressure amidst normal demand. Arrivals would continue in the coming week at the same pace. In the medium term trend would depend on final crop estimates of Guar by the state farm department and the demand from the overseas markets. Movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar and the trend in crude oil prices would also influence Guar futures in the long run.

Chana Review

• Chana prices on daily charts closed near its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating a sideways trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 50.46 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Chana prices may recover in the intraday on reports of delay in harvesting in Maharashtra. In the short to medium term (1-2 week), price gains may be capped on positive reports of sowing and fresh arrivals from Karnataka. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further

trend of Chana futures.

Balck Pepper

• Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating bullish trend.

• The 14-Day RSI is at 54.6 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the positive territory.

Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to trade range bound due to lacklustre trades at the domestic market. In the short term (till mid of January), Pepper prices will depend on global Black pepper availability and demand from the overseas and domestic market. In the medium to long term (January end onwards), price trend will depend on demand from the overseas and domestic market, pepper stocks with major producers and Black pepper production

estimates of in India and Vietnam of 2011.

Turmric Review

• Prices closed below its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating bearish trend.

• The 14-Day RSI is at 51.5 and is in neutral region.

Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade range bound to firm due to improved buying by the market participants. Prices in short term (till mid of January), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and growth of sown crop. In medium to long term (January end onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.

Jeera Review

• Prices closed below its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating bearish trend.

• The 14-Day RSI is at 50.4 and is in neutral zone.

• MACD is in the positive territory.

Jeera prices in the intraday will trade sideways to down due to lacklustre trades at the domestic market. In the short term (till mid of January), trend will depend on jeera price parity of various origins in international market and stocks of jeera with local stockists. In the medium to long term (January end onwards) prices are likely to take cues from demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and production estimates in India.

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Guar Review

• Guar prices closed above its 10-Day EMA and at its 20- Day EMA indicating a bullish trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 55.5 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Guar futures may recover gradually in the current week due to demand from the overseas and local buyers. In the medium term trend would depend on final crop estimates of Guar by the state farm department and the demand from the overseas markets. Movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar and the trend in crude oil prices would also influence Guar futures in the long run.

Chana Review

• Chana prices on daily charts closed below its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating bearish market sentiments.

• 14-days RSI is at 45.7 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Chana prices may trade range bound with negative bias due to dull demand from the domestic buyers. In the short to medium term (1-2 week), price gains may be capped on positive reports of sowing and rising arrivals of Kharif pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana futures.

Turmeric Review

• Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating bullish trend.

• The 14-Day RSI is at 53.8 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the positive territory.

Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade bearish due to lower offtakes. Any revival of fresh orders from the domestic buyers may however support prices to strengthen. Prices in short term (till mid of January), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and growth of sown crop. In medium to long term (January end onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market

participants.

Jeera Review

• Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating bullish trend.

• The 14-Day RSI is at 56.1 and is in neutral zone.

• MACD is in the positive territory.

Jeera prices in the intraday will trade sideways to firm due improved buying by the market participants. In the short term (till mid of January), trend will depend on jeera price parity of various origins in international market and stocks of jeera with local stockists. In the medium to long term (January end onwards) prices are likely to take cues from demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and production estimates in India.

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Commodity MCX, NCDEX Updates

NCDEX Review

Guar Review

• Guar prices closed above its 10-Day EMA and at its 20- Day EMA indicating a bullish trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 55.10 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Guar futures may start to recover gradually in the present week as arrivals have eased across the major markets. In the medium term trend would depend on final crop estimates of Guar by the state farm department and the demand from the overseas markets. Movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar and the trend in crude oil prices would also influence Guar futures in the long run.

Chana Review

• Chana prices on daily charts closed above its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating bullish market sentiments.

• 14-days RSI is at 55.3 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the positive territory.

Chana prices may trade range bound due to dull demand from the domestic buyers. In the short to medium term (1-2 week), Price gains may be capped on positive reports of sowing and rising arrivals of Kharif pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of

Chana futures.

Jeera Review

• Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating bullish trend.

• The 14-Day RSI is at 54.8 and is in neutral zone.

• MACD is in the positive territory.

Jeera prices in the intraday will trade sideways to firm due improved buying by the market participants. In the short

term (till mid of January), trend will depend on jeera price parity of various origins in international market and

stocks of jeera with local stockists. In the medium to long term (January end onwards) prices are likely to take cues

from demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and production estimates in India.

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MCX Review

Spot gold prices edged slightly lower on Monday, as the dollar gained against the other major currencies, capping gains in the yellow metal prices. Spot gold prices closed at $1413.80/oz on Monday, down 0.4 percent.

After a spectacular rally in 2010, wherein gold prices gained more than 25 percent, the yellow metal prices started the year on a weaker note. The wedding season in India is also coming to an end, reducing demand for jewellery. India is the largest consumer of gold in the world but has to import a major chunk of the yellow metal from overseas markets.

In the futures market, the January gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $1422.60/oz, slightly up by 0.1

percent. On the MCX, the near-month February contract for delivery closed at `20788/10 gm, up 0.2 percent.

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Spot gold prices came under pressure mainly due to strength in the US dollar today. The yellow metal prices touched an intra-day low of $1413.79/oz and were trading at $ 1417.41/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. However, on the MCX, gold prices were up by almost 0.3 percent, as depreciation of the Rupee supported prices on the Indian markets today.

Spot Silver prices were trading lower by 0.3 percent and hit an intra- day low of $30.63/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. The white metal prices declined mainly on account of strength in the US dollar. Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee silver prices gained around 0.5 percent on the MCX and were hovering around `46472/kg till 4.00 pm IST today.

Economic data to be released from the US today are - ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing prices. We expect metal prices to trade with a positive note mainly taking cues from rising copper prices. Copper prices are expected to trade higher mainly due to its positive forecast of increase in demand for the next year from China, the world’s largest metal consumer. Crude oil prices are expected to trade with a positive bias today mainly taking cues from hopes of increasing demand for the crude oil from the colder regions for the heating purpose. But sharp gains will be capped due to strength in the US dollar today. We expect gold and silver prices to trade higher today as economic uncertainties continues as we step into 2011. But sharp gains in prices will be restricted on account of dollar strength.

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