Commodity MCX, NCDEX Trend

MCX Review

Gold prices gained, albeit marginally on Monday after witnessing a sharpfall last week. The yellow metal prices gained after concerns with regard to Portugal needing a financial bailout emerged in the markets. Moreover,prices also received support on the back of bargain hunting as investors were attracted after slight correction in prices last week.On an intra-day basis, we expect gold prices to trade in the green, with demand mainly emerging on the back of Euro zone concerns. But, a sharp trigger is also not witnessed on the upside as the US dollar is also expected to strengthen simultaneously. A stronger greenback usually makes dollar-denominated commodity prices look unattractive for holders of other currencies.

Supply concerns in crude oil due to shut down in the Alaska pipeline supported oil prices on Monday. Alaska pipeline is one of the key oil arteries of US, carrying about 12 percent of the country’s production. Due to this leak, the company was forced to cut its production to 5 percent of their average 630,000 barrels per day. Prices rallied, gaining around 1.5percent on the Nymex and touched an intra-day high of $89.98/bbl. On the MCX, crude oil prices surged more than 1 percent

yesterday, touching an intra-day high of `4082/bbl.

Natural gas prices declined sharply by more than 1percent on theNymex on Monday, touching an intra-day low of $4.322/mmBtu. Gas prices declined mainly on the back of weak sentiments in the global equity markets yesterday. But demand for gas from the colder regions for heating purpose cushioned further downside in the gas prices. On the MCX, gas prices traded lower by around 0.7 percent, to close at `201.2 on Monday. Outlook Crude Oil We expect crude oil prices to trade higher today on the back of supply concerns due to shut down in Alaska pipeline. But sharp gains will be

capped due to strength in the US dollar in today’s trading session.

Aluminium prices declined almost1 percent on the LME as well as on the MCX on Monday. The metal prices touched an intra-day low of $2475/tonne and close at $2491/tonne yesterday. Choppy sentiments in the global equity markets coupled with rising inventory levels on the LME warehouse acted as a negative factor for prices. The metal inventories increased a whopping 97,100 tonnes to 4,369,500 tonnes on Monday.

NCDEX Review

Guar Review

• Guar prices closed above its 10-Day EMA and its 20-Day EMA indicating a bullish trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 53.7 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Guar futures may trade firm due to demand from local stockists. Prices may also trace the arrival pattern. In the medium term trend would depend on final crop estimates of Guar by the state farm department and the demand from the overseas markets. Movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar and the trend in crude oil prices would also influence Guar futures in the long run.

Chana Review

• Chana prices on daily charts closed below its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating bearish trend.

• 14-days RSI is at 48.1 and is in neutral region.

• MACD is in the negative territory.

Chana prices may trade range bound with reports of crop damage in M.P and better production of Chana in 2011 . In the short to medium term (1-2 week), price gains may be capped on positive reports of sowing and fresh arrivals from Karnataka. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana futures.

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