2/25/2011 06:17:00 PM
Your Advisor
MCX Commodity Trend
Base metals came under pressure mainly taking cues from ongoing concerns in Libya coupled with strength in the US dollar. Copper was the only metal to gain on the LME in today’s trading session. Decline of 1.8 percent in weekly Shanghai copper inventories acted as a supportive factor for prices to gain. The red metal traded up 0.5 percent on the LME and were hovering around $9554.75/tonne at 4.30 pm IST. But Rupee appreciation led MCX copper to trade on a flat note today.
We expect base metals to trade lower mainly due to strength in the US dollar today. Crude oil prices are expected to trade higher mainly taking cues from ongoing geo-political worries. However, sharp gains in the oil prices will be capped due to strength in the US dollar. We expect gold to trade higher today, mainly taking cues from ongoing turmoil in Libya which will increase safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, rising crude oil prices will also help the yellow metal to rise as an inflation-hedge.
NCDEX Commodity Trend
Guar Review
Guar futures in the intraday are expected to recover tracking the firmness in the crude oil prices and revival in the export demand. In the short term (2 - 3 weeks) we expect Guar prices to trade sideways to down due to decline in the overseas orders at higher rates and may trade in the range of Rs.2800 and Rs. 3050 per qtl.
In the medium term (2 months), prices would be dependent on the overseas demand scenario.
Sugar review
Sugar prices in the intraday are expected to recover owing to expectation that the government might release lower quota in the month of March and positive statement by the farm minister with respect to Sugar exports. Overall sentiments in the medium term would depend on the permissible Sugar exports by India. Prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 2750 – Rs. 2900 per qtl levels.
Turmeric Review
Turmeric prices in the intraday will trade sideways to up due to recovery in demand from overseas and domestic buyers. Price trend in the short term are likely to depend on the arrivals and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the medium to long term turmeric prices may trade bearish due to increase in the arrivals owing to better production.
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