Base Metal MCX, Commodity Trend

Gold futures rose on Monday on the back of safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. Spot gold prices gained around 0.9 percent, closing at $1365.40/oz in the international markets. Investors chose to remain invested in the traditionally accepted safe-haven investment as austerity measures in Ireland face hurdles from opposition parties.


On the MCX, the near-month gold contract for delivery closed at `20140, up 0.3%. Silver prices also took cues from the bullion pack and gained more than 1% in the
international spot market. The December contract on Comex closed at $27.42/oz on Monday.

We expect the bullion pack to trade on a positive note today as uncertainty with regards to implementation of austerity measures in Ireland will drive demand as a safe- haven investment.

Crude oil futures ended in the green on the Nymex, gaining around 0.3 percent on Monday, but slipped from its intra-day high of $82.87/bbl. Oil prices came under
pressure after the US dollar strengthened due to uncertainty in Ireland regarding austerity measures. In addition, choppy sentiments in the global markets also exerted pressure on crude oil prices on Monday. According to the Reuters poll, the American Petroleum Institute (API) administered crude oil inventory data is expected to decline in the week ended Nov 19th. Crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 2.3 million barrels in the last week. We expect crude oil prices to trade on a weaker note as Ireland’s concerns coupled with a stronger US dollar will exert pressure.

Today, we expect base metals to trade with a negative bias as uncertainty in Ireland regarding austerity measures and the expected bailout package will strengthened the dollar today. Stronger dollar will continue to exert downside pressure on the base metal prices.

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