MCX Trend, NCDEX Trend, Commodity Review

MCX - Commodity Metal Trend
Spot Gold prices gained around 0.3% and were hovering around $1363.70/oz till 4.00 pm IST today. Despite positive sentiments in the equity markets, the yellow metal prices experienced gains mainly on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) today. The DX depreciated against a basket of six
currencies and was trading at 76.97 till 4.00 pm IST. The European equities were trading in the green in the afternoon trade. The domestic equities comprising the Sensex and Nifty traded on a positive note today. On the MCX platform, gold prices increased slightly by 0.2% and were trading around 119,838 till 3.45 IST today.

Copper prices rallied, gaining more than 1.5% on LME, and touched an intra‐day high of $8341/tonne till 4.00 pm IST today. The red metal prices were trading at $8320/tonne around the same time. Copper prices witnessed sharp gains mainly due to positive manufacturing data from China, the largestconsumer of the metal. The Manufacturing PMI of China rose to 54.7 in October, more than the forecast of 53.5. In the earlier month of September, the index had reported figures of 53.8. Moreover, weakness in the DX also helped the red metal prices to gain today. Copper inventories dropped by 925 tonnes
to reach 367,575 tonnes on the LME warehouse today. On the MCX, copper prices gained sharply around 1% and were hovering at `372.65/kg today.

Crude oil prices gained by almost 1% on both on the Nymex as well as on the MCX till 4.00 pm IST today. Oil prices touched an intra‐day high of $82.17/bbl,
on the Nymex today. Crude oil prices experienced gains mainly due to positive manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest oil consumer. Moreover,
weakness in the DX has also acted as a supportive factor for the oil prices to gain today. On the MCX, crude oil prices were trading at `3663/bbl till 4.00pm
IST today.

NCDEX - Commodity Trend
Sugar price set to plummet further this Diwali
Diwali could be a little sweeter this season and lighter on the wallet as well, as the price of sugar is set to plummet further from the already low levels. The factory gate price of sugar in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest producer, is expected to nose-dive to Rs 2,725 a qtl, or 100 kilos, in November, a good Rs 375 less
than the price during the same period last year. Sugar prices have been going down since September in consonance with the higher sugar output estimates in 2010-11.

Guar Review
Despite increased arrivals compared to last week, Guar futures may trade sideways with positive bias in the coming days due to poor quality of fresh guar crop amidst improved demand for Guar and it’s by products. Also, the output which was expected to be much higher may decline by 12-15% due to off seasonal rainfall which may damage the crop. We expect arrivals to strength after the first week of November (i.e. after Diwali). Also, the quality crop would arrive by than. Thus, prices are expected decline after mid November as higher supplies may dampen the prices. Guar prices may trade in the range of Rs. 1900- 2300 per qtl in the Medium term.

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