12/02/2010 06:24:00 PM
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Commodity Base Metal Trend
Gold futures on the MCX were trading in the green in the afternoon session today on the back of softer US dollar. Data released by the Shanghai Gold Exchange today stated that gold imports in China totaled 209.72 tonnes in Jan‐Oct 2010 period. Worries of constant increase in inflation in the country coupled with uncertainty in the global markets made investors flock towards the yellow metal. Spot gold prices gained around 0.3% today, touching an intra‐day high of $1394.65 till 3.45 pm IST. On the MCX, yellow metal prices gained slightly by 0.2% and were hovering around `20,485 around the same time
today.
Weakness in the US dollar coupled with positive equities acted as a supportive factor for copper prices to rise today. The red metal prices gained almost 1% both on the LME as well as on the MCX till 3.45 pm IST. Prices touched an intra‐day high of $8725/tonne on the LME today. In addition, falling inventories on the LME warehouse also helped the red metal prices to gain today. Copper inventories declined by 2,425 tonnes to reach 352,425 tonnes on the LME warehouse today. Union leaders and management at Chile’s Collahuasi mine, prepare to reached an agreement and if this talks succeed, it will result to end the 28 days long strike.
Despite rise in the US crude oil inventories, oil prices gained today mainly taking cues from the weakness in the DX today. Positive sentiments in the global
equities also helped crude oil prices to move in the northward direction. Oil prices gained around 0.3% on the Nymex and were trading at $86.98/bbl till 3.45
pm IST. On the MCX, oil prices rose by almost 0.5% and were hovering at `3944/bbl around the same time today.
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Commodity Ncdex Trend
Guar prices closed below its 10-Day EMA and its 20-Day EMA indicating a bearish trend.
• 14-days RSI is at 40.2 and is in neutral region.
• MACD is in the negative territory.
In the short term (1-2 week) supply pressure due to increased arrivals may be overshadowed by the increased export demand, thus prices are expected to remain sideways. In the medium term trend would depend
Chana Prices on daily charts closed above its 10-days and its 20-days EMA, indicating an upward trend.
• 14-days RSI is at 57.7 and is in neutral region.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Delay in sowing due to unseasonal rains and resowing in some growing areas may support Chana prices to remain firm in the coming weeks. However, in the short to medium term (one month), Prices may gains may be capped due to rising arrivals of Kharif pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana futures.
Prices closed above its 10-Day’s and its 20-Day’s EMA indicating bullish trend.
• 14-Day RSI is at 68.9 and is in neutral zone.
• MACD is in the positive territory.
Turmeric prices in the intraday are expected to trade firm due to lower arrivals and better offtakes at the domestic mandi. Prices in short term (till mid of December), will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and growth of sown crop. In the long to medium term (December end onwards), prices is likely to take cues from the turmeric stocks and production estimates reported by the spot market participants.
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