MCX COMMODITY Trend

Gold prices gained sharply by 1.6 percent in Tuesday’s trading session and touched an intra-day high of $1406.75/oz. Prices took cues from weakness in the dollar after consumer confidence in the US showed a decline and as house prices also slipped. Concerns over economic growth in the US led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven. Even otherwise, concerns with regard to Euro Zone economic growth persist and remains a bullish factor for gold in the short-term.

Silver prices on the other hand rose a whopping 3.5% on Tuesday and moved toward a 30-year record. Spot silver prices touched a high of $30.27/oz yesterday and prices on the MCX tested levels above Rs45600. The white metal has been the best commodity during 2010 as silver has gained 73% on a year-to-date basis. Safe-haven demand coupled with increased demand for silver as an industrial metal has been supportive to prices. We expect gold and silver prices to continue to trade higher in today’s trading session as the economic scenario in the US remains grim, leading to rise in demand for precious metals as a safe-haven. Weakness in the dollar will additionally support bullion prices in the international markets, making them look attractive for holders of other currencies.

Weakness in the US dollar has helped crude oil prices to trade higher, which touched an intra-day high of 91.67 on Tuesday. Demand for heating oil from colder regions also led prices to rise yesterday. Crude oil inventories have declined the most in 30 years this month as refiners want to avoid year-end tax liabilities. Supplies in the states along Gulf of Mexico have slumped 9.2% during this month to 167.3 million barrels. It has been seen that refiners usually tend to avoid the year-end liabilities due to which supplies in the Gulf Coast generally witness a decline in December, followed by a rise in January. Hence, this drawdown in oil inventories may just be for the time-being and prices may take a hit if the rise in inventories resume.


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