MCX, NCDEX Commodity Trend

MCX Commodity News
Weak economic data dissipated from U.S. showing a rise in Jobless claims and New Homes Sales falling for the first time in 3 months dented the Red Metal demand and COMEX Copper July futures ended in red and fell by 1.20 percent to close at $4.0390 per pound from $4.0880 per pound on 22 nd June, 2011.

Copper three month futures on LME were pressurized by the rise in the Dollar Index which surged 0.41 percent to close at 75.25 from 74.94 the prior day leading a 1.0 percent fall in Copper prices to $8,975 per ton from $9,065.3 per ton the prior day.

Gold Prices
COMEX Gold Aug futures saw sharp selling yesterday amid sell off in commodities due to fall in crude oil prices and stronger greenback which eased inflationary concerns. Futures slid sharply by 2.12 percent to close at $1,520.5 per troy ounce from $1,553.4 per troy ounce on 22 nd June, 2011, however investment demand remained unchanged at SPDR Gold ETF pointing that the yellow metal has still some shine left in it.

NCDEX Trend
Guar futures are expected to extend earlier gains on account of forecast of below normal monsoon in India as well as in the Northwest India. Also, slow progress of monsoon may delay sowing and may support prices further. Prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 3350-3600 per qtl levels in the short term. Robust export demand for Indian Guar gum from Oil companies may support Guar prices in the long term (September). However, in the next 2 months (July – August), rainfall distribution over Northwest India would be an important factor to be watched for as the price movement during this period mainly depends on monsoon.

Sugar prices are expected to recover further on predictions of below normal monsoon in Central India and allowance of sugar exports from India. In the medium term prices would depend on the planting progress of Sugarcane across country and thereby the output prediction for 2011- 12 Prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs. 2450-2650 per qtl levels. From long term perspective, prices are expected to take cues from the supplies from Brazil and demand from China as the country is expected to increase its sugar imports in the second half of the year.

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